November 26, 2022
3 views: How wrong were our 2022 startup predictions?


What a decade this 12 months has been. Whereas prediction items all the time include a big asterisk as a result of nobody is aware of actually something about what could play out sooner or later — resembling huge shocks to massive startup sectors — our views about 2022 have aged … curiously.

Final 12 months, Natasha Mascarenhas, Alex Wilhelm, and Anna Heim spotlighted three totally different startup theses that will outline the approaching 12 months. Now, we’re fact-checking how correct these predictions have been, plus what we’d change about our views. We all know. Humble.

For an gentle vacation riff, we’re speaking about what occurred with the M&An area, open supply, and usage-based pricing. Let’s have some enjoyable!

Natasha: Let’s speak about acquisitions

Final 12 months, I predicted that M&A would evolve to incorporate a riskier sort of ambition. I cited Twitter’s starvation for a Slack competitor and Nike’s infatuation with NFT collectibles. I even reminded founders that startups must “keep disciplined even amid a cash-rich setting” as a substitute of “spinning up lukewarm local weather and web3 methods as a result of that’s what they suppose their cap desk needs to listen to.” (And that tradition and know-how are arduous to combine on the identical time).


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